Wealth, War & Wisdom, a Follow-Up Thought Exercise

Inspired by the book I just reviewed, here is a little game for those who, like money manager selectors, make their living evaluating people:

Suppose you must choose between two potential money managers, A and B.  Person A:

1)  Is very popular with all his subordinates, known for his friendliness and consideration.
2)  Is frugal in all his personal habits
3)  Neither smokes nor drinks
4)  As of the date you're considering him, enjoys a reputation for prescience and amazing judgment in his profession.

On the other hand, Person B

1)  Is rude to underlings and is unpopular among most of his colleagues.
2)  Has extravagant tastes and is careless with money
3)  Speculated on margin in his personal portfolio, with disastrous results
4)  Starts drinking before noon and continues until just before bedtime
5)  As of the date you're considering him, is considered by most to be a washed up loser, a failure in his profession.

As a professional "judge of character," on whom would you place your bet?

Person B is Winston Churchill in the late 1930s, while Person A is, at about the same time, Adolf Hitler.

Comments

[NateCarrFan]

With all due respect, I think you're cherry picking. ;-)

[Nadav Manham]

You're right, but that's partly my point. People who call themselves good "judges of character," especially those who do it as part of their job (money manager selectors, venture capital investors) must constantly ask themselves whether they're seeing only what they want to see, or only what the other person wants them to see. As the example shows, the biographies of even the greatest monsters can be selectively edited in order to seduce.